When prediction market contracts settle on what announcers say or who appears on screen, behind-the-scenes broadcast decisions can affect whether they pay out. Former ESPN producer Dennis Deninger explains how live broadcasts work and where the risks lie.
Image: Courtesy of Dennis Deninger
Before Mike Tirico and Cris Collinsworth called a single play of the 2026 Super Bowl back in February, traders on Kalshi were already putting money on what the NBC announcers might say.
Would one or both of them mention Tom Brady? That was trading at 93 cents on February 8, meaning traders thought there was a good chance the answer would be “yes.”
Even “Gronk,” the nickname of Brady’s former teammate Rob Gronkowski, had a 65-cent price tag.
When most people think of betting on the Super Bowl, mention markets probably aren’t the first wagers that come to mind.
After all, they have nothing to do with who wins or loses. Instead, a winning contract could come down to a name or phrase slipping into an announcer’s commentary.
These prediction-market contracts may leave you wondering: Just how spontaneous is a live sports broadcast? And how susceptible is it to manipulation?
To get to the bottom of just how much the people behind the scenes know before a broadcast goes live, Gambling Insider spoke with Dennis Deninger.
Deninger is a three-time Emmy Award-winning former ESPN production executive who produced live sports television from six continents and across the U.S. He’s also a professor emeritus at Syracuse University and author of The Football Game That Changed America: How the NFL Created a National Holiday.
Producers and researchers spend days preparing storylines, interviews, and graphics in the lead-up to a big event, with some of that material being promoted publicly before kickoff, Deninger told us.
But even with all the preparation that goes into game day, a lot of what happens once the game gets underway is unscripted.
Still, producers help shape what commentators discuss, while directors decide what gets shown on air. And some of those choices can affect whether or not a prediction market contract pays out.
Sports Broadcasts Are Planned, but Commentary Remains Unpredictable
“There is advanced knowledge about what’s going to be said because you plan out your storylines,” Deninger told Gambling Insider.
Although it may not be obvious to those watching, much more goes into preparing a sports broadcast than just knowing which players will be on the field.
Ahead of a game, producers, researchers, associate producers, and commentators work together to develop storylines, while the production team plans interviews and prepares graphics highlighting players’ backgrounds and past performances.
If someone’s betting on whether an announcer will mention a specific name or say a certain phrase, those planned storylines could very well provide them with clues about what might be said during a broadcast.
Deninger recalled that during his 25-year career at ESPN, the network had a name for commentators who didn’t do much more than describe what was happening on the screen: “innings eaters.”
“They would just tell you that so and so is up, and the count is two and two,” he said. But they wouldn’t say anything about the player, where they came from, how many times he’d struck out.
All of the research the production team does gives commentators the context to do more than just describe what viewers can already see on their screens. But it doesn’t mean that announcers are just reading from a script.
“So little of live sports broadcasting is scripted,” Deninger said.
He explained that show openings, sponsorship announcements, and promotional segments are generally scripted beforehand.
“The rest of it is up to the play-by-play person,” he said, explaining that commentators call the action as it happens, while analysts provide additional context about the plays and players.
“You’re not exactly sure what a commentator is going to say about a particular play or player or event,” Deninger said.
And all that uncertainty is part of what can make mention markets so hard to predict.
While production teams do have a good idea of which subjects will come up during a broadcast, that doesn’t mean the announcer will use the exact name or phrase a trader needs to hear for a contract to pay out.
Public Broadcast Previews Can Give Prediction Market Traders an Edge
Production staff aren’t the only people who know what topics might come up during a live broadcast. Networks often share some of that information before a game even begins.
“Every network that televises sports uses its website, social media and online content to promote the stories, rivalries, matchups, and star players that viewers will see during a live telecast,” Deninger explained.
And what they’re sharing beforehand is often much more than just a general preview of upcoming games. Networks sometimes give viewers a glimpse of what they’ve prepared.
“The networks very often present excerpts from interviews that you will see during the live game on their websites or YouTube channels,” Deninger said.
“All is done with the goal of promoting viewership of the events on that network as widely as possible across multiple platforms.”
These bits of information could be a goldmine for someone trading a prediction market contract on whether an announcer will mention a particular name.
One hypothetical example would be a network promoting a rivalry between two quarterbacks. A prediction market trader could take that as a sign that the announcers might revisit past matchups during an upcoming game and mention former coaches or teammates as well.
Deninger brought up another source of potential clues: A trader could study an analyst’s past broadcasts to see whether they tend to use certain words or phrases repeatedly.
None of this guarantees that an announcer will say the name or phrase a trader is betting on, but it does mean that traders who are paying attention could find useful clues without knowing anyone involved in producing a broadcast.
Of course, knowing what might come up is different from having a say in what actually makes it on air.
Producers and Directors Can Influence Betting Outcomes
What announcers say on air isn’t the only thing people can bet on. Some state-regulated sportsbooks have offered prop bets on things like the color of the Gatorade dumped on the winning coach after the Super Bowl, while prediction markets have offered their own versions as event contracts.
The production team working behind the scenes doesn’t decide what color the Gatorade is. But it does have a say in what viewers hear and see during a broadcast, and those decisions can affect the outcome of wagers involving on-air mentions or appearances.
When it comes to what announcers say on air, the producer has a particularly influential role.
“Only the producer is in constant contact with all the commentators, prompting them to advance storylines, add analysis to explain how and why a play succeeded or failed, and to tell them what replays or recorded content is coming up next,” Deninger told us.
A coordinating producer or network executive can contact the producer running the broadcast, he said, but they can’t communicate directly with commentators while they’re live.
That hierarchy means producers are uniquely positioned to influence what announcers discuss, which could affect whether a wager on an on-air mention pays out.
The director, meanwhile, can influence a different kind of wager: one on whether a particular person appears on screen during a game. And prediction markets have offered contracts on that for the Super Bowl.
Deninger gave the example of a player’s family members or a celebrity attending a game. The production team may anticipate showing them in the stands, but the decision to put them on the screen belongs to the director.
“If [someone’s] gambling on that, the only person choosing those pictures is the director,” Deninger said. “The director would only take a shot of that person if it was meaningful to the story.”
Financial Incentives Create Risks of Broadcast Manipulation
With money riding on what gets said or shown during a broadcast, there’s an important difference between anticipating an outcome and actively trying to influence it.
Deninger thinks it’s unlikely that production staff would attempt to influence commentators for financial gain, partly because communication with announcers is so tightly controlled during a game. But he doesn’t completely rule out the possibility.
One scenario where he sees it as a possibility is a disgruntled employee who was passed over for a promotion or otherwise felt wronged.
“If there’s money to be made at something, there are people who may have a grudge,” he said. “Maybe I can make a few hundred dollars if I pass this information on to one of the analysts or play-by-play person and they say it…”
But Deninger pointed out that this type of attempt could backfire if the commentator felt distracted or pressured, which could prompt a response along the lines of, “Get out of my ear.”
He also told us that networks place a great deal of trust in experienced producers, who are often among the highest-paid people working on a broadcast.
Still, Deninger said, “there have been cases over the years where a producer or a director gets too involved in gambling.” He didn’t go into the details of any specific incident.
“You really want to try to make sure that the people you put in charge of doing a live broadcast have your trust and are trustworthy,” he said.
Gambling Sponsorships Risk Influencing Editorial Decisions
Someone trying to influence a broadcast to win a wager is just one way gambling could affect what viewers see and hear. Deninger pointed out that there’s another: sponsorships.
He explained that it’s one thing to run gambling advertising during commercial breaks; it’s something completely different when it becomes part of the telecast itself.
“Networks are wary of their sportscasts having too much spoken gambling promotion and less actual coverage of the live contest,” Deninger said.
One example he gave was an on-screen graphic identifying a sportsbook as the provider of betting odds, without the announcers mentioning the sponsor.
The concern, he said, is that this kind of integration could start affecting the coverage viewers get during the game.
In a typical broadcast, viewers may see scores from other games, league news, or player updates running across the bottom of their screens. If that space starts filling up with gambling odds instead, they may start to wonder whose interests are driving those decisions.
Deninger said that kind of integration can “color how your audience sees you.”
“Are you only giving this information because it serves this sponsor? Are you only doing this in the show because you’re now sponsored by this prediction market, and they [viewers] want to know this,” he said.
And the viewers aren’t the only ones who have a stake in how the coverage is presented. Deninger said leagues and other rights holders also have an interest in making sure sponsorship arrangements don’t change the way their sporting events are shown.
“We don’t want our content to be changed because of its sponsorship,” he said.
Betting-Driven Broadcast Decisions Could Erode Viewer Trust
While talking about the relationship between broadcasters and their audience, Deninger described it as a “compact with the viewer.”
People tune in to see the game, understand what’s happening, and hear the stories that make it interesting.
He used the example of the Gatorade shower after the Super Bowl. Even if people have bet on what color Gatorade will be dumped on the winning coach, that doesn’t mean the production team should make a point of showing it just because they know about those bets.
“You can’t be making decisions based upon what somebody may or may not be betting on,” he said.
If producers start shaping their broadcasts around outside influences, Deninger said, “you lose track of what the story of the actual event is.”
That can “fracture your telecast,” he warned. “And in the end, the viewers will have less trust in you, and the networks will have less trust in the integrity of that broadcast.”
